← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 16, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Frappart
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 56% | 55% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.53 | fair |
| Ajaccio win | 16% | 22% | 6.21 | value: +36% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace −0.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Ajaccio −0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 52% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 48% | 2.68 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Kévin Gameiro · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 34' | 🟨 | Mounaim El Idrissy · Ajaccio |
| 63' | 🟨 | Mathieu Coutadeur · Ajaccio |
| 70' | 🟨 | Cedric Avinel · Ajaccio |
| 71' | ⚽ | Habib Diarra · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 76' | ⚽ | Mickaël Barreto · Ajaccio |
| 79' | 🟨 | Sanjin Prcić · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ismaël Diallo · Ajaccio |
| 89' | ⚽ | Yuito Suzuki · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Habib Diarra · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ajaccio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 90' | 🟨 | Youssouf Koné · Ajaccio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 74.00 | 1019.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1644.88 | 1487.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.27 | -41.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | -1.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.69 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.61 |
| league points | 26.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 8.75 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | -1.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.26 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 26.79 | 29.98 |
| state index | 0.32 | -1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 0.55 |