← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 16, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Lille OSC win | 63% | 63% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.55 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 16% | 15% | 6.41 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Lille OSC −1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Montpellier −1 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 56% | 61% | 1.74 | value: +6% |
| Under | 44% | 39% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy |