← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 9, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Dechepy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 34% | 37% | 2.82 | value: +4% |
| Ajaccio win | 34% | 31% | 2.94 | fair |
| AJ Auxerre win | 32% | 32% | 3.07 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ajaccio +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| AJ Auxerre +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 72% | 61% | 1.35 | fair |
| Over | 28% | 39% | 3.40 | value: +34% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Birama Touré · AJ Auxerre |
| 5' | 🟨 | Julian Jeanvier · AJ Auxerre |
| 6' | ⚽ | Nuno Da Costa · AJ Auxerre |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Mickaël Alphonse · AJ Auxerre |
| 50' | 🟨 | Ismaël Diallo · Ajaccio |
| 66' | 🟨 | Youssouf M'Changama · AJ Auxerre |
| 87' | 🟨 | Akim Zedadka · AJ Auxerre |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ajaccio | AJ Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade François Coty |
| coach days |
| 1012.00 |
| 190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1462.79 | 1526.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.00 | 21.09 |
| eye test v1 | -1.41 | -1.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| league points | 21.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.72 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.39 | -1.07 |
| solidity v1 | -0.16 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.28 |
| state index | -0.70 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.82 |