← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 2, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Vernice
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clermont win | 47% | 47% | 2.07 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 27% | 3.07 | fair |
| Ajaccio win | 21% | 26% | 4.68 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ajaccio −0.5 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Clermont −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 67% | 59% | 1.45 | fair |
| Over | 33% | 41% | 3.00 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Mounaim El Idrissy · Ajaccio |
| 54' | 🟨 | Cheick Konate · Clermont |
| 58' | 🟨 | Moussa Soumano · Ajaccio |
| 60' | 🟨 | Clement Vidal · Ajaccio |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Grejohn Kyei · Clermont |
| 71' | 🟨 | Alidu Seidu · Clermont |
| 77' | 🟥 | Mohamed Youssouf · Ajaccio |
| 83' | 🟨 | Benjamin Leroy · Ajaccio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mathieu Coutadeur · Ajaccio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mickaël Alphonse · Ajaccio |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 3 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Clermont | Ajaccio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Gabriel Montpied |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Grejohn Kyei · Clermont |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 3927.00 | 1005.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1599.85 | 1510.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.50 | -18.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -1.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.20 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| league points | 34.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 14.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | -1.18 |
| solidity v1 | -1.23 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 27.52 | 30.26 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 0.39 |