← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 2, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Frappart
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 37% | 34% | 2.66 | fair |
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 35% | 36% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.53 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Toulouse FC +0 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Stade Brestois 29 +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 51% | 1.86 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 49% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade Francis-Le Blé |