← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 2, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: J. Pignard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 70% | 78% | 1.38 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 18% | 15% | 5.49 | fair |
| FC Lorient win | 12% | 7% | 8.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient −1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Lille OSC −1.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 57% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 43% | 2.68 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Rémy Cabella · Lille OSC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Laurent Abergel · FC Lorient |
| 46' | 🟨 | Angel Gomes · Lille OSC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Tim Weah · Lille OSC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Bamo Meïté · FC Lorient |
| 77' | ⚽ | Ibrahima Kone · FC Lorient |
| 79' | 🟨 | Laurent Abergel · FC Lorient |
| 79' | 🟥 | Laurent Abergel · FC Lorient |
| 85' | 🟨 | Benjamin André · Lille OSC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Edon Zhegrova · Lille OSC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Edon Zhegrova · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 2 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | FC Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 305.00 |
| 305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1740.61 | 1590.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.61 | 15.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.77 |
| league points | 49.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 14.79 | 13.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.33 | 0.77 |
| solidity v1 | 0.02 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.74 | 25.58 |
| state index | 0.87 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.90 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 1.38 |