← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, Mar 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Gaillouste
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 53% | 58% | 1.84 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.64 | fair |
| Clermont win | 21% | 20% | 4.85 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Montpellier −0.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Clermont −0.5 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 54% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 46% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Saîf-Eddine Khaoui · Clermont |
| 57' | 🟨 | Johan Gastien · Clermont |
| 61' | ⚽ | Elye Wahi · Montpellier |
| 72' | ⚽ | Elye Wahi · Montpellier |
| 86' | 🟨 | Wahbi Khazri · Montpellier |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Ferri · Montpellier |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Ferri · Montpellier |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jordan Ferri · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 16 |
| 9 | On target | 8 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Clermont |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 46.00 | 3913.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1626.65 | 1607.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 50.24 | -14.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 70.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.63 |
| league points | 33.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | -0.29 |
| solidity v1 | 1.11 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.76 | 26.79 |
| state index | 1.13 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.03 |