← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Fri, Mar 10, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 53% | 48% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.98 | value: +8% |
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 22% | 25% | 4.42 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais −0.75 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Lille OSC −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 54% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 46% | 2.31 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Johann Lepenant · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 38' | 🟨 | Gabriel Gudmundsson · Lille OSC |
| 46' | ⚽ | Jonathan David · Lille OSC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Rayan Cherki · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan David · Lille OSC |
| 64' | ⚽ | Bradley Barcola · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 72' | 🟨 | Benjamin André · Lille OSC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Lucas Chevalier · Lille OSC |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan David · Lille OSC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 20 | Fouls | 19 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| 85' | 🟨 | Saël Kumbedi · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 89' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Gomes · Lille OSC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonathan Bamba · Lille OSC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dejan Lovren · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 282.00 | 160.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 5.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1730.19 | 1698.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.04 | 6.96 |
| eye test v1 | 1.29 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| league points | 45.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 6.17 | 5.16 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.77 | 1.35 |
| solidity v1 | 0.51 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.45 | 26.74 |
| state index | 1.03 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.15 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 1.65 |