← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, Mar 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Millot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 54% | 59% | 1.78 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 19% | 3.72 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 19% | 22% | 5.24 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO −0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Montpellier −0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 52% | 1.79 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 48% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Wahbi Khazri · Montpellier |
| 8' | 🟨 | Boubakar Kouyaté · Montpellier |
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
| 33' | 🟨 | Ousmane Camara · Angers SCO |
| 45' | ⚽ | Faitout Maouassa · Montpellier |
| 51' | ⚽ | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
| 57' | 🟨 | Nabil Bentaleb · Angers SCO |
| 57' | 🟨 | Nabil Bentaleb · Angers SCO |
| 57' | 🟥 | Nabil Bentaleb · Angers SCO |
| 73' | ⚽ | Elye Wahi · Montpellier |
| 82' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| 🟨 |
| Miha Blažič · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 32.00 | 4.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1546.91 | 1417.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.42 | -15.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| league points | 27.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.75 | 7.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 0.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.25 | 27.08 |
| state index | 0.08 | -1.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.99 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 0.91 |