← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, Feb 19, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 58% | 61% | 1.71 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.28 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 19% | 18% | 5.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC −0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Lille OSC −0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 61% | 1.54 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 39% | 2.63 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 17' | ⚽ | Neymar · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 24' | ⚽ | Bafodé Diakité · Lille OSC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bafodé Diakité · Lille OSC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Marco Verratti · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan David · Lille OSC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jonathan Bamba · Lille OSC |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jonathan Bamba · Lille OSC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 10 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jonathan David · Lille OSC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Benjamin André · Lille OSC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 233.00 | 263.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1939.11 | 1787.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.45 | 21.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | 1.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.87 |
| league points | 54.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.00 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 64.40 |
| rest days | 7.83 | 6.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.35 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.06 | 1.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 25.46 | 26.34 |
| state index | 0.88 | 1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.42 | 1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.65 | 2.19 |