← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 18, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Letexier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 50% | 51% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.41 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 21% | 24% | 4.69 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Angers SCO −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 55% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 45% | 2.30 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Habib Diallo · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 20' | 🟨 | Pierrick Capelle · Angers SCO |
| 35' | 🟨 | Maxime Le Marchand · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 40' | 🟨 | Cédric Hountondji · Angers SCO |
| 42' | ⚽ | Habib Diallo · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 72' | 🟨 | Eduard Sobol · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Nabil Bentaleb · Angers SCO |
| 74' | 🟨 | Alexander Djiku · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ousmane Camara · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 17.00 | 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1585.10 | 1429.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.47 | -24.43 |
| eye test v1 | -1.37 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.85 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| league points | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 6.25 | 6.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 0.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 0.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.09 | 27.08 |
| state index | -0.30 | -1.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.67 |