β Ligue 1 2022-23 Β· Sun, Feb 12, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: H. Ben El Hadj
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Lille OSC win | 67% | 68% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 5.00 | value: +10% |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 13% | 10% | 7.57 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace β1.25 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Lille OSC β1.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 57% | 48% | 1.69 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 52% | 2.29 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | Decathlon Arena β Stade Pierre-Mauroy |