← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sat, Jan 14, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 71% | 73% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 16% | 5.35 | fair |
| AJ Auxerre win | 10% | 11% | 9.77 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AJ Auxerre −1.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Racing Club de Lens −1.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 57% | 52% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 48% | 2.24 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 21 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade Bollaert-Delelis |