← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Mon, Jan 2, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Buquet
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 59% | 52% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.24 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 18% | 24% | 5.51 | value: +32% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Montpellier +1 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Olympique de Marseille +1 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 52% | 1.74 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 48% | 2.21 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Chancel Mbemba · Olympique de Marseille |
| 47' | ⚽ | Nuno Tavares · Olympique de Marseille |
| 52' | 🟨 | Jordan Ferri · Montpellier |
| 61' | ⚽ (og) | Maxime Estève · Olympique de Marseille |
| 86' | 🟨 | Christopher Jullien · Montpellier |
| 87' | 🟥 | Nuno Tavares · Olympique de Marseille |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pau López · Olympique de Marseille |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 18 |
| 1 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 580.00 | 185.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1608.43 | 1842.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.21 | 11.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 49.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | — |
| league points | 17.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 4.08 | 3.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | 0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.10 | 28.41 |
| state index | 0.12 | 1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |