← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Thu, Dec 29, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Pignard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 68% | 71% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | 5.32 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 13% | 11% | 7.77 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC −1.5 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Olympique de Marseille −1.5 | 48% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 57% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 43% | 2.70 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Valentin Rongier · Olympique de Marseille |
| 41' | ⚽ (og) | Rasmus Nicolaisen · Olympique de Marseille |
| 51' | ⚽ | Sead Kolašinac · Olympique de Marseille |
| 61' | ⚽ | Dimitri Payet · Olympique de Marseille |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jonathan Clauss · Olympique de Marseille |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Branco van den Boomen · Toulouse FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Christian Mawissa · Toulouse FC |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Cengiz Ünder · Olympique de Marseille |
| 81' | 🟨 | Branco van den Boomen · Toulouse FC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Nuno Tavares · Olympique de Marseille |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Orange Vélodrome |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 181.00 | 576.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.71 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1835.26 | 1636.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.51 | -17.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.90 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.68 |
| league points | 30.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.61 | 25.12 |
| state index | 0.82 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |