← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Wed, Dec 28, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Turpin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 80% | 85% | 1.23 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 14% | 11% | 7.10 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 7% | 4% | 15.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC −2 | 51% | 1.91 |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace −2 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 71% | 67% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 29% | 33% | 3.31 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Marquinhos · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Gerzino Nyamsi · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 50' | 🟨 | Marco Verratti · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 51' | ⚽ (og) | Marquinhos · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 61' | 🟨 | Neymar · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Neymar · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 62' | 🟥 | Neymar · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 180.00 | 606.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1984.76 | 1658.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.81 | -34.96 |
| eye test v1 | 1.10 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 48.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.75 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.95 | 0.61 |
| league points | 41.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.00 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.73 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.80 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.40 | 29.16 |
| state index | 1.99 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.04 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |