← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, Nov 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Pignard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 45% | 40% | 2.19 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 35% | 3.22 | value: +13% |
| Ajaccio win | 25% | 25% | 3.91 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nantes −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Ajaccio −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 56% | 1.61 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 44% | 2.44 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Youssouf Koné · Ajaccio |
| 37' | 🟨 | Ludovic Blas · Nantes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jean-Charles Castelletto · Nantes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Riad Nouri · Ajaccio |
| 51' | 🟨 | Oumar Gonzalez · Ajaccio |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Youssef Belaïli · Ajaccio |
| 62' | 🟨 | Andrei Girotto · Nantes |
| 66' | ⚽ | Romain Hamouma · Ajaccio |
| 70' | ⚽ | Ludovic Blas · Nantes |
| 89' | ⚽ | Moses Simon · Nantes |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Ajaccio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |
| 🟨 |
| Vincent Marchetti · Ajaccio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 650.00 | 865.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1599.03 | 1526.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.11 | 24.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | -0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| league points | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.95 | — |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |