← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sat, Nov 5, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Vernice
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 38% | 34% | 2.64 | fair |
| Ajaccio win | 31% | 29% | 3.18 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 37% | 3.10 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace +0 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Ajaccio +0 | 46% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 62% | 1.54 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 38% | 2.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 17' | ⚽ | Kévin Gameiro · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 22' | 🟨 | Ronaël Pierre-Gabriel · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 32' | 🟨 | Thomas Delaine · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 33' | ⚽ (pen) | Youssef Belaïli · Ajaccio |
| 34' | ⚽ | Mounaim El Idrissy · Ajaccio |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Youssef Belaïli · Ajaccio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Riad Nouri · Ajaccio |
| 62' | 🟨 | Maxime Le Marchand · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 79' | 🟥 | Clement Vidal · Ajaccio |
| 4 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 20 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ajaccio | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade François Coty |
| 90' | 🟨 | Colin Dagba · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 857.00 | 553.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1509.26 | 1617.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.87 | -18.15 |
| eye test v1 | -1.23 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.60 | 47.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| league points | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 6.17 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.09 |
| state index | -0.67 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |