← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Léonard
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 47% | 51% | 2.06 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.73 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 26% | 24% | 3.72 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Montpellier +0.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Olympique Lyonnais +0.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 64% | 1.78 | value: +14% |
| Under | 45% | 36% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 21 |
| 4 | On target | 10 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand