← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, Oct 16, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 52% | 54% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.97 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 24% | 22% | 4.22 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC −0.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Angers SCO −0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 55% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 45% | 2.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Brecht Dejaegere · Toulouse FC |
| 21' | 🟨 | Souleyman Doumbia · Angers SCO |
| 31' | 🟨 | Rasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse FC |
| 33' | ⚽ | Nabil Bentaleb · Angers SCO |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Branco van den Boomen · Toulouse FC |
| 48' | 🟨 | Zakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse FC |
| 67' | ⚽ | Stijn Spierings · Toulouse FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Farès Chaïbi · Toulouse FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Amadou · Angers SCO |
| 90' | ⚽ | Amine Salama · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days | 502.00 | 4125.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1612.64 | 1490.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.27 | 5.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 8.67 | 6.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 24.67 | 24.77 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |