← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, Oct 2, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Batta
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 41% | 43% | 2.43 | value: +4% |
| AJ Auxerre win | 30% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.37 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Auxerre +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Stade Brestois 29 +0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 53% | 1.87 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 47% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Julian Jeanvier · AJ Auxerre |
| 25' | 🟨 | Islam Slimani · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 52' | 🟨 | Julian Jeanvier · AJ Auxerre |
| 52' | 🟥 | Julian Jeanvier · AJ Auxerre |
| 57' | 🟨 | Brendan Chardonnet · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 59' | 🟨 | M'Baye Niang · AJ Auxerre |
| 64' | ⚽ | Islam Slimani · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 82' | 🟨 | Romain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 85' | 🟨 | Marco Bizot · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | M'Baye Niang · AJ Auxerre |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 0 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AJ Auxerre | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 1.00 | 488.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1587.62 | 1583.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.50 | -47.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| league points | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 15.75 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 28.29 | 26.92 |
| state index | -0.66 | -0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |