← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, Oct 2, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Turpin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajaccio win | 39% | 47% | 2.48 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
| Clermont win | 29% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Clermont −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Ajaccio −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 62% | 1.51 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 38% | 2.73 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Grejohn Kyei · Clermont |
| 45' | 🟨 | Johan Gastien · Clermont |
| 64' | 🟨 | Mickaël Alphonse · Ajaccio |
| 70' | ⚽ | Cedric Avinel · Ajaccio |
| 73' | 🟨 | Mehdi Zeffane · Clermont |
| 76' | 🟨 | Cyrille Bayala · Ajaccio |
| 76' | 🟨 | Maximiliano Caufriez · Clermont |
| 88' | 🟨 | Ismaël Diallo · Ajaccio |
| 89' | ⚽ | Elbasan Rashani · Clermont |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jodel Dossou · Clermont |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ajaccio | Clermont |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade François Coty |
| coach days | 823.00 | 3745.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1543.67 | 1587.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.77 | -8.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | -1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.77 |
| league points | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 29.04 | 27.09 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |