← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Wed, Aug 31, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 55% | 69% | 1.76 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 26% | 17% | 3.82 | fair |
| FC Lorient win | 19% | 14% | 5.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient −0.75 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Racing Club de Lens −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 53% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 47% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Florian Sotoca · Racing Club de Lens |
| 28' | ⚽ | Wesley Saïd · Racing Club de Lens |
| 41' | ⚽ | Terem Moffi · FC Lorient |
| 50' | ⚽ | Terem Moffi · FC Lorient |
| 57' | ⚽ | Salis Abdul Samed · Racing Club de Lens |
| 58' | 🟨 | Dango Ouattara · FC Lorient |
| 60' | 🟨 | Laurent Abergel · FC Lorient |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jonathan Gradit · Racing Club de Lens |
| 63' | 🟨 | Terem Moffi · FC Lorient |
| 77' | ⚽ | Florian Sotoca · Racing Club de Lens |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Racing Club de Lens | FC Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Bollaert-Delelis |
| 86' |
| ⚽ |
| Loïs Openda · Racing Club de Lens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 913.00 | 91.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1776.84 | 1600.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.89 | 29.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.66 |
| league points | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | — |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.42 | 0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.16 | 25.51 |
| state index | 1.24 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |