← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Wed, Aug 31, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Pignard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 40% | 32% | 2.40 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 31% | 37% | 3.29 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.33 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Reims +0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 56% | 1.84 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Marshall Munetsi · Reims |
| 45' | ⚽ | Junya Ito · Reims |
| 46' | 🟨 | Marshall Munetsi · Reims |
| 58' | 🟨 | Maxime Busi · Reims |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Sofiane Boufal · Angers SCO |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jens Cajuste · Reims |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jens Cajuste · Reims |
| 65' | 🟥 | Jens Cajuste · Reims |
| 67' | ⚽ | Adrien Hunou · Angers SCO |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Folarin Balogun · Reims |
| 80' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.60 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.59 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
| Martin Adeline · Reims |
| 85' | 🟨 | Sada Thioub · Angers SCO |
| 89' | 🟨 | Patrick Pentz · Reims |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alexis Flips · Reims |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 4079.00 | 426.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1565.09 | 1636.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.68 | -31.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| league points | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 3.17 | 3.08 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.77 | -0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.90 | 24.74 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |