← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, Aug 21, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Vernice
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 50% | 47% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.64 | fair |
| AJ Auxerre win | 23% | 28% | 4.20 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Auxerre −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Montpellier −0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 49% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 51% | 2.11 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Nuno Da Costa · AJ Auxerre |
| 39' | ⚽ | Mamadou Sakho · Montpellier |
| 43' | 🟨 | Paul Joly · AJ Auxerre |
| 46' | 🟥 | Khalil Fayad · Montpellier |
| 51' | 🟥 | M'Baye Niang · AJ Auxerre |
| 70' | ⚽ | Nuno Da Costa · AJ Auxerre |
| 73' | 🟨 | Mamadou Sakho · Montpellier |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Mathias Autret · AJ Auxerre |
| 88' | 🟨 | Nuno Da Costa · AJ Auxerre |
| 88' | 🟥 | Nuno Da Costa · AJ Auxerre |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | AJ Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| 🟥 |
| Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 446.00 | 1147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.28 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1607.88 | 1600.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.96 | -0.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 66.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.48 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 7.75 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | 0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.72 | 29.26 |
| state index | -0.47 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |