← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, Aug 14, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Buquet
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Auxerre win | 40% | 45% | 2.45 | value: +10% |
| Angers SCO win | 31% | 25% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.32 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| AJ Auxerre −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 58% | 1.89 | value: +9% |
| Over | 48% | 42% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Julian Jeanvier · AJ Auxerre |
| 7' | 🟨 | Batista Mendy · Angers SCO |
| 10' | ⚽ (og) | Cédric Hountondji · AJ Auxerre |
| 17' | 🟨 | Gaëtan Charbonnier · AJ Auxerre |
| 22' | ⚽ | Loïs Diony · Angers SCO |
| 31' | 🟨 | Lassine Sinayoko · AJ Auxerre |
| 37' | 🟨 | Paul Joly · AJ Auxerre |
| 57' | 🟨 | Lassine Sinayoko · AJ Auxerre |
| 57' | 🟥 | Lassine Sinayoko · AJ Auxerre |
| 61' | 🟨 | Azzedine Ounahi · Angers SCO |
| 68' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AJ Auxerre | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps |
| 🟨 |
| Nuno Da Costa · AJ Auxerre |
| 77' | ⚽ | Amine Salama · Angers SCO |
| 83' | 🟨 | Halid Šabanović · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1140.00 | 4062.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 1.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1575.62 | 1528.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.10 | 14.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.90 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.62 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.86 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |