← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sat, Aug 13, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 91% | 83% | 1.07 | fair |
| Draw | 6% | 10% | 17.00 | value: +71% |
| Montpellier win | 3% | 7% | 41.00 | value: +186% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC −3.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Montpellier −3.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 83% | 80% | 1.14 | fair |
| Under | 17% | 20% | 5.50 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ (og) | Falaye Sacko · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Neymar · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 51' | ⚽ | Neymar · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 58' | ⚽ | Wahbi Khazri · Montpellier |
| 60' | 🟨 | Presnel Kimpembe · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Elye Wahi · Montpellier |
| 66' | 🟨 | Vitinha · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 69' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Renato Sanches · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Enzo Tchato Mbiayi · Montpellier |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 0 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.57 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 43.00 | 438.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1936.08 | 1611.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.29 | -28.10 |
| eye test v1 | 2.31 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 71.40 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.71 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.32 | 0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.65 | 26.97 |
| state index | 1.85 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.16 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |