← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, Aug 7, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 58% | 64% | 1.66 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.93 | fair |
| Reims win | 17% | 14% | 5.94 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Reims −1 | 55% | 1.79 |
| Olympique de Marseille −1 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 52% | 47% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 53% | 2.03 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade Orange Vélodrome |