← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Fri, Aug 5, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 70% | 73% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.31 | value: +5% |
| Ajaccio win | 11% | 7% | 9.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ajaccio −1.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Olympique Lyonnais −1.5 | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 60% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 40% | 2.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Tetê · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 20' | 🟨 | Cedric Avinel · Ajaccio |
| 22' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 27' | 🟥 | Anthony Lopes · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | Thomas Mangani · Ajaccio |
| 33' | 🟨 | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 33' | 🟨 | Romain Hamouma · Ajaccio |
| 34' | 🟨 | Mounaim El Idrissy · Ajaccio |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ismaël Diallo · Ajaccio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Romain Hamouma · Ajaccio |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Ajaccio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| 45' |
| 🟥 |
| Romain Hamouma · Ajaccio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Spadanuda · Ajaccio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.00 |
| coach days | 461.00 | 765.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1745.57 | 1556.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.83 | 16.01 |
| eye test v1 | 1.37 | 0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 45.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.87 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.00 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 23.62 | — |
| state index | 1.29 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |