← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Sat, May 21, 07:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AS Monaco FC win | 45% | 40% | 2.12 | fair |
| Racing Club de Lens win | 30% | 33% | 3.37 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 4.00 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AS Monaco FC +0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Racing Club de Lens +0.25 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 62% | 57% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 43% | 2.59 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 28 | Shots | 12 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 8 |
| 5 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.