← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Wed, May 11, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Buquet
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 63% | 61% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.33 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 15% | 17% | 7.00 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice −1 | 52% | 1.91 |
| AS Saint-Étienne −1 | 48% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 47% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 53% | 2.15 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Denis Bouanga · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 37' | 🟨 | Yvann Maçon · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 44' | 🟨 | Flavius Daniliuc · OGC Nice |
| 45' | ⚽ | Zaydou Youssouf · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 52' | ⚽ | Melvin Bard · OGC Nice |
| 54' | 🟨 | Eliaquim Mangala · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 60' | ⚽ | Andy Delort · OGC Nice |
| 62' | ⚽ | Andy Delort · OGC Nice |
| 65' | 🟨 | Justin Kluivert · OGC Nice |
| 80' | ⚽ | Hicham Boudaoui · OGC Nice |
| 85' | 🟨 | Harold Moukoudi |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 344.00 |
| 161.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1663.07 | 1506.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.42 | -19.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.60 |
| league points | 61.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 10.08 | 10.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.76 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.38 | — |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |