← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Sun, May 8, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Millot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 39% | 40% | 2.50 | fair |
| Bordeaux win | 33% | 31% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux −0.25 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Angers SCO −0.25 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 55% | 1.90 | value: +4% |
| Under | 48% | 45% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Mohamed-Ali Cho · Angers SCO |
| 36' | ⚽ | Batista Mendy · Angers SCO |
| 46' | 🟨 | Josuha Guilavogui · Bordeaux |
| 56' | 🟨 | Anel Ahmedhodžić · Bordeaux |
| 60' | 🟨 | Sékou Mara · Bordeaux |
| 60' | ⚽ | Sékou Mara · Bordeaux |
| 62' | ⚽ | Stéphane Bahoken · Angers SCO |
| 77' | 🟨 | Javairô Dilrosun · Bordeaux |
| 78' | 🟨 | Angelo Fulgini · Angers SCO |
| 89' | 🟨 | Yacine Adli · Bordeaux |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mathias Pereira Lage · |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 3964.00 |
| 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1509.42 | 1472.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.53 | -8.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.52 |
| league points | 35.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |