← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Sun, May 8, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: E. Wattellier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 73% | 67% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 18% | 6.00 | value: +10% |
| Metz win | 11% | 15% | 9.02 | value: +33% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Metz +1.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Olympique Lyonnais +1.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 68% | 1.35 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 32% | 3.50 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Vincent Pajot · Metz |
| 40' | ⚽ | Didier Lamkel Zé · Metz |
| 43' | ⚽ | Moussa Dembélé · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 68' | 🟥 | Thiago Mendes · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 70' | 🟨 | Sikou Niakaté · Metz |
| 74' | 🟨 | Boubacar Traoré · Metz |
| 84' | ⚽ | Moussa Dembélé · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 86' | 🟨 | Tanguy Ndombélé · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 88' | 🟨 | Nicolas de Préville · Metz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Léo Dubois · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | ⚽ | Farid Boulaya |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 19 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 584.00 |
| 372.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1467.79 | 1749.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.69 | 0.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | 1.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.64 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.10 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 2.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| league points | 25.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 6.92 | 6.68 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 24.63 | 25.30 |
| state index | -1.18 | 0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |