← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Sun, Apr 24, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Frappart
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clermont win | 45% | 42% | 2.19 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.40 | value: +4% |
| Angers SCO win | 25% | 27% | 3.84 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Clermont −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Angers SCO −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 54% | 1.69 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 46% | 2.29 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Romain Thomas · Angers SCO |
| 37' | ⚽ | Mohamed-Ali Cho · Angers SCO |
| 38' | 🟨 | Nabil Bentaleb · Angers SCO |
| 44' | ⚽ | Ismaël Traoré · Angers SCO |
| 61' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Bamba · Angers SCO |
| 62' | 🟨 | Mohamed-Ali Cho · Angers SCO |
| 71' | ⚽ | Mohamed Bayo · Clermont |
| 74' | 🟨 | Mohamed-Ali Cho · Angers SCO |
| 74' | 🟥 | Mohamed-Ali Cho · Angers SCO |
| 82' | ⚽ | Lucas Da Cunha · Clermont |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 21 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Clermont | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Gabriel Montpied |
| 🟨 |
| Batista Mendy · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 3584.00 | 3950.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 9.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 1.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1580.99 | 1575.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.79 | 10.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.68 |
| league points | 32.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 3.83 | 3.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.69 | 27.38 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |