← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Letexier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 70% | 72% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.53 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 12% | 11% | 8.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Montpellier −1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Olympique Lyonnais −1.5 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 69% | 60% | 1.41 | fair |
| Under | 31% | 40% | 3.20 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Moussa Dembélé · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 28' | 🟨 | Ambroise Oyongo · Montpellier |
| 42' | 🟨 | Nicolas Cozza · Montpellier |
| 43' | ⚽ (og) | Jonas Omlin · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 45' | ⚽ | Elye Wahi · Montpellier |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
| 63' | ⚽ | Houssem Aouar · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 68' | ⚽ | Karl Toko Ekambi · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jérôme Boateng · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 89' | 🟨 | Malo Gusto · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | ⚽ | Houssem Aouar |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 27 | Shots | 11 |
| 13 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 357.00 |
| 326.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1718.74 | 1584.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.93 | -20.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 66.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.76 |
| league points | 50.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 2.83 | 2.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.90 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 24.30 | 25.80 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.06 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |