← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Wed, Apr 20, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Buquet
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 61% | 60% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.27 | fair |
| Nantes win | 16% | 18% | 6.44 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nantes −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Olympique de Marseille −1 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 59% | 1.81 | value: +7% |
| Under | 46% | 41% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Andrei Girotto · Nantes |
| 32' | 🟨 | Ludovic Blas · Nantes |
| 35' | 🟨 | Luan Peres · Olympique de Marseille |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Dimitri Payet · Olympique de Marseille |
| 41' | ⚽ | Marcus Coco · Nantes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marcus Coco · Nantes |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Dimitri Payet · Olympique de Marseille |
| 75' | ⚽ | Amine Harit · Olympique de Marseille |
| 81' | 🟨 | Fábio · Nantes |
| 86' | 🟨 | Arkadiusz Milik · Olympique de Marseille |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcus Coco |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Orange Vélodrome |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dennis Appiah · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟥 | Marcus Coco · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 415.00 |
| 443.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1760.16 | 1624.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.91 | -17.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.93 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| league points | 59.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 3.01 | 3.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.84 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.65 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.53 | — |
| state index | 0.95 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.50 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |