← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Wed, Apr 20, 05:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| ES Troyes AC win | 42% | 37% | 2.41 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
| Clermont win | 29% | 36% | 3.32 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Clermont −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| ES Troyes AC −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 59% | 1.83 | value: +8% |
| Over | 47% | 41% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 3 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.