← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Wed, Apr 20, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 40% | 45% | 2.47 | value: +12% |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 32% | 28% | 3.04 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.46 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Bordeaux −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 44% | 1.82 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 56% | 2.09 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Tom Lacoux · Bordeaux |
| 16' | ⚽ | Sékou Mara · Bordeaux |
| 19' | 🟨 | Jean Onana · Bordeaux |
| 23' | ⚽ | Jean Onana · Bordeaux |
| 28' | 🟨 | Danylo Ihnatenko · Bordeaux |
| 33' | ⚽ | Denis Bouanga · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 44' | 🟨 | Lucas Gourna-Douath · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 52' | 🟨 | Stian Gregersen · Bordeaux |
| 65' | ⚽ | Arnaud Nordin · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 71' | 🟨 | Arnaud Nordin · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 84' | 🟨 | Denis Bouanga |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| 84' | 🟨 | Wahbi Khazri · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 87' | 🟨 | Anel Ahmedhodžić · Bordeaux |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mahdi Camara · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yvan Neyou · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 78.00 |
| 140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 3.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1487.70 | 1520.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.96 | -12.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 26.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 3.08 | 4.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |