← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Sun, Apr 10, 03:05 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 39% | 44% | 2.48 | value: +8% |
| OGC Nice win | 32% | 30% | 3.21 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Racing Club de Lens −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 54% | 1.79 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 46% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟥 | Massadio Haïdara · Racing Club de Lens |
| 31' | 🟨 | Cheick Doucouré · Racing Club de Lens |
| 38' | 🟨 | Evann Guessand · OGC Nice |
| 45' | 🟨 | Amine Gouiri · OGC Nice |
| 50' | 🟨 | Mario Lemina · OGC Nice |
| 51' | ⚽ | Arnaud Kalimuendo · Racing Club de Lens |
| 55' | ⚽ | Cheick Doucouré · Racing Club de Lens |
| 57' | 🟨 | Mario Lemina · OGC Nice |
| 57' | 🟥 | Mario Lemina · OGC Nice |
| 66' | 🟨 | Florian Sotoca · Racing Club de Lens |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Racing Club de Lens | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Bollaert-Delelis |
| 67' |
| ⚽ |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo · Racing Club de Lens |
| 90' | 🟥 | Dante · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 770.00 | 313.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1668.05 | 1732.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.18 | 9.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | — |
| league points | 44.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 7.17 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.94 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 25.55 | 25.68 |
| state index | 0.54 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |