← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Fri, Apr 8, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Buquet
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient win | 45% | 46% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.21 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 25% | 26% | 4.03 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| AS Saint-Étienne −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 65% | 1.68 | value: +9% |
| Over | 43% | 35% | 2.31 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Denis Bouanga · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 14' | 🟨 | Eliaquim Mangala · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 22' | ⚽ | Arnaud Nordin · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 29' | 🟨 | Enzo Le Fée · FC Lorient |
| 35' | 🟨 | Mickael Nade · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 41' | 🟨 | Timothée Kolodziejczak · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Terem Moffi · FC Lorient |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ibrahima Kone · FC Lorient |
| 61' | ⚽ | Enzo Le Fée · FC Lorient |
| 65' | ⚽ | Ibrahima Kone · FC Lorient |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 12 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Lorient | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir |
| 68' |
| 🟨 |
| Yvan Neyou · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 68' | 🟨 | Yvan Neyou · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 68' | 🟥 | Yvan Neyou · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 86' | ⚽ | Terem Moffi · FC Lorient |
| 87' | 🟨 | Terem Moffi · FC Lorient |
| 89' | ⚽ | Quentin Boisgard · FC Lorient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 1073.00 | 128.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 3.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1580.15 | 1590.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.87 | 0.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.66 |
| league points | 28.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 5.01 | 5.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.50 | 25.75 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |