← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Sun, Apr 3, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Lesage
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clermont win | 36% | 32% | 2.74 | fair |
| Nantes win | 33% | 40% | 2.94 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Clermont +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Nantes +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 62% | 1.68 | value: +4% |
| Over | 43% | 38% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Salis Abdul Samed · Clermont |
| 34' | 🟨 | Florent Ogier · Clermont |
| 35' | 🟨 | Andrei Girotto · Nantes |
| 43' | 🟨 | Yohann Magnin · Clermont |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Ludovic Blas · Nantes |
| 58' | ⚽ | Saîf-Eddine Khaoui · Clermont |
| 62' | ⚽ | Pedro Chirivella · Nantes |
| 63' | ⚽ | Salis Abdul Samed · Clermont |
| 67' | ⚽ | Randal Kolo Muani · Nantes |
| 72' | 🟥 | Salis Abdul Samed · Clermont |
| 88' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Clermont | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Gabriel Montpied |
| 🟨 |
| Akim Zedadka · Clermont |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alidu Seidu · Clermont |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 3563.00 | 426.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1582.28 | 1685.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.66 | 13.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.81 |
| league points | 28.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 14.88 | 14.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.29 | 26.36 |
| state index | -0.51 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |