← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Sun, Feb 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Batta
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Nantes win | 36% | 38% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
| Metz win | 31% | 33% | 3.21 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Nantes +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Metz +0 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 65% | 58% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 42% | 2.75 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 0 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |