← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Wed, Dec 22, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Letexier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 62% | 65% | 1.61 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 23% | 19% | 4.41 | fair |
| Reims win | 15% | 16% | 7.35 | value: +15% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille −1 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Reims −1 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 51% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Valentin Rongier · Olympique de Marseille |
| 44' | 🟨 | Gerson · Olympique de Marseille |
| 75' | ⚽ | Hugo Ekitiké · Reims |
| 81' | 🟨 | Moreto Cassama · Reims |
| 85' | 🟨 | Dimitri Payet · Olympique de Marseille |
| 85' | 🟥 | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng · Olympique de Marseille |
| 90' | 🟨 | Boubacar Kamara · Olympique de Marseille |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andreaw Gravillon · Reims |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andreaw Gravillon · Reims |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yunis Abdelhamid · Reims |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Stade Orange Vélodrome |
| 90' | 🟥 | Andreaw Gravillon · Reims |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Dimitri Payet · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 296.00 | 174.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1759.43 | 1654.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.18 | 22.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| league points | 32.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 10.17 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.07 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.87 | 23.19 |
| state index | 1.02 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.60 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |