← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Sun, Dec 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Hamel
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 42% | 39% | 2.33 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 26% | 32% | 3.81 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reims −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Angers SCO −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 63% | 1.51 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 37% | 2.74 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Valon Berisha · Reims |
| 30' | 🟨 | Dion Lopy · Reims |
| 33' | 🟨 | Sofiane Boufal · Angers SCO |
| 35' | 🟨 | Valon Berisha · Reims |
| 35' | 🟥 | Valon Berisha · Reims |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ismaël Traoré · Angers SCO |
| 48' | 🟨 | Azor Matusiwa · Reims |
| 49' | ⚽ (pen) | Sofiane Boufal · Angers SCO |
| 57' | 🟨 | Souleyman Doumbia · Angers SCO |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Hugo Ekitiké · Reims |
| 75' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reims | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Auguste-Delaune II |
| ⚽ |
| Angelo Fulgini · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 157.00 | 3810.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1657.77 | 1627.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.24 | -5.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.90 | 65.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| league points | 19.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 3.75 | 3.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.04 | 28.35 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |