← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Wed, Dec 1, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Delerue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 40% | 37% | 2.45 | fair |
| Clermont win | 32% | 34% | 3.09 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Clermont +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Racing Club de Lens +0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 55% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 45% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Johan Gastien · Clermont |
| 12' | ⚽ (og) | Johan Gastien · Racing Club de Lens |
| 15' | 🟨 | Kevin Danso · Racing Club de Lens |
| 36' | 🟨 | Massadio Haïdara · Racing Club de Lens |
| 38' | 🟨 | Florent Ogier · Clermont |
| 41' | ⚽ | Yohann Magnin · Clermont |
| 47' | ⚽ | Seko Fofana · Racing Club de Lens |
| 56' | 🟨 | Jonathan Clauss · Racing Club de Lens |
| 65' | ⚽ | Mohamed Bayo · Clermont |
| 69' | 🟨 | Przemysław Frankowski · Racing Club de Lens |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Clermont | Racing Club de Lens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Gabriel Montpied |
| 81' | 🟨 | Pierre-Yves Hamel · Clermont |
| 84' | 🟥 | Yadaly Diaby · Clermont |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jodel Dossou · Clermont |
| 90' | 🟨 | Corentin Jean · Racing Club de Lens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 3440.00 | 640.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 1.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1550.67 | 1632.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.81 | -16.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.87 | 0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.61 |
| league points | 13.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 3.25 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.67 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.12 |
| state index | -0.71 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |