← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Sun, Nov 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Millot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz win | 41% | 36% | 2.38 | fair |
| Bordeaux win | 30% | 35% | 3.33 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.32 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux −0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Metz −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 56% | 1.78 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 44% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Alberth Elis · Bordeaux |
| 28' | 🟨 | Pape Matar Sarr · Metz |
| 30' | 🟨 | Alberth Elis · Bordeaux |
| 39' | ⚽ | Rémi Oudin · Bordeaux |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nicolas de Préville · Metz |
| 51' | ⚽ | Opa Nguette · Metz |
| 55' | 🟨 | Dylan Bronn · Metz |
| 65' | ⚽ | Rémi Oudin · Bordeaux |
| 68' | 🟥 | Farid Boulaya · Metz |
| 68' | 🟨 | Yacine Adli · Bordeaux |
| 70' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 19 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| Opa Nguette · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 416.00 | 143.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 4.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1501.96 | 1535.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.68 | 2.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.60 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| league points | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 14.08 | 14.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.62 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.63 | — |
| state index | -0.84 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |