← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Sat, Nov 20, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Stinat
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 81% | 81% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 13% | 7.70 | fair |
| Nantes win | 6% | 6% | 16.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nantes −2.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC −2.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 64% | 1.35 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 36% | 3.40 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Pedro Chirivella · Nantes |
| 65' | 🟥 | Keylor Navas · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Marco Verratti · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 76' | ⚽ | Randal Kolo Muani · Nantes |
| 81' | ⚽ (og) | Dennis Appiah · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ludovic Blas · Nantes |
| 87' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.85 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 323.00 | 292.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1958.57 | 1647.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.76 | 5.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.40 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.71 |
| league points | 34.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 13.83 | 13.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.62 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.91 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.63 | 27.93 |
| state index | 1.27 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.45 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |