← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Sun, Sep 26, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 47% | 41% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.55 | fair |
| Bordeaux win | 25% | 31% | 4.08 | value: +25% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bordeaux +0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 +0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 51% | 1.81 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 49% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |