← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Sun, Aug 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Delerue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 59% | 61% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.13 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 17% | 18% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Montpellier −1 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Lille OSC −1 | 46% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 60% | 1.74 | value: +4% |
| Under | 45% | 40% | 2.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Junior Sambia · Montpellier |
| 25' | 🟨 | José Fonte · Lille OSC |
| 25' | 🟨 | Jordan Ferri · Montpellier |
| 33' | 🟨 | Benjamin André · Lille OSC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Gaëtan Laborde · Montpellier |
| 43' | 🟨 | Xeka · Lille OSC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Yusuf Yazıcı · Lille OSC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Laborde · Montpellier |
| 56' | 🟨 | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
| 56' | ⚽ | Jonathan David · Lille OSC |
| 59' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| 🟨 |
| Joris Chotard · Montpellier |
| 70' | 🟨 | Florent Mollet · Montpellier |
| 73' | 🟨 | Junior Sambia · Montpellier |
| 73' | 🟥 | Junior Sambia · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 59.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1827.93 | 1683.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.69 | 7.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| league points | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.83 | 7.08 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.86 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.92 | 25.93 |
| state index | 0.15 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.92 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |