← Ligue 1 2021-22 · Sun, Aug 22, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Dechepy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 44% | 38% | 2.27 | fair |
| FC Lorient win | 28% | 32% | 3.44 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Montpellier −0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| FC Lorient −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 45% | 1.71 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 55% | 2.25 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Enzo Le Fée · FC Lorient |
| 49' | 🟨 | Fabien Lemoine · FC Lorient |
| 50' | ⚽ | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
| 58' | ⚽ | Stephy Mavididi · Montpellier |
| 67' | 🟨 | Thomas Monconduit · FC Lorient |
| 83' | ⚽ | Andy Delort · Montpellier |
| 84' | 🟨 | Houboulang Mendes · FC Lorient |
| 86' | 🟨 | Houboulang Mendes · FC Lorient |
| 86' | 🟥 | Houboulang Mendes · FC Lorient |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jérôme Hergault · FC Lorient |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 32 | Shots | 5 |
| 11 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | FC Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| 🟨 |
| Jérôme Hergault · FC Lorient |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jérôme Hergault · FC Lorient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 82.00 | 844.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1673.62 | 1611.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.12 | 23.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 67.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.75 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.80 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.17 | 27.62 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |